I had predicted in 2011 that if Okonjo Iweala became the Minister of Finance she would eventually resign and leave for the sole aim of protecting her integrity. God please forgive me for that illusion. Now I can see the frustration and helplessness of President Jonathan, he knows things are bad but cannot help because he is not in charge. On the sole reason that Okojo Iweala coordinates the economy and gives professional advice to the president on how best to run the economy. The truth however is that Okonjo Iweala’s management of our economy now calls for a sober review.
Let us examine how the economy has been managed under her watch. In January 8, 2012, http://www.punchng.com/business/subsidy-removal-nigerians-wont-suffer-in-vain-okonjo-iweala/ these were her words. Nigerians would derive clear and measurable benefits from the removal of subsidy. Some of the benefit she promised Nigerians were construction, completion and rehabilitation of rail, refineries, key federal highways, hydro stations, information technology and water projects etc. she further said, the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme SURE-P which was a fall out of the subsidy removal will provide for mass transit, public works, training in artisanship for unskilled youth and social services, health care etc. On specifics however, she said government would make available 1,600 buses to remedy the consequence of subsidy removal. May we remind Madam Minister, none of these promises has been actualized in the sense of any transparent policy feedback since the removal of subsidy.
Despite the lack of job opportunity and over 80% unemployment; 70% poverty rate, Okonjo-Iweala in a reply to the House of Representatives on issues surrounding the 2014 budget said Jonathan administration had created 1.6m jobs in 2013. http://thenationonlineng.net/new/okonjo-iweala-replies-reps-weve-created-1-6m-jobs/ . As I had asked on many occasions: Madam Minister where are the jobs?
Madam Minister had consistently maintained, that the Nigeria economy is in a good shape. Her stand was further justified by Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of about $432 billion compared to that of South Africa which stood at $370 billion at the end of 2013 making Nigeria the biggest economy in Africa. What achievement kudos to the Minister and her team. Another remarkable achievement that followed the rebased economy was the hosting of World Economic Forum in Abuja the capital city of Nigeria. What a big country Nigeria is?
One thing that cannot stand the test of time is lies. Shortly after the widely celebrated rebased and biggest economy in Africa together with the hosting of World Economic Forum, the very bottom of the economy she manages collapsed: the fall in oil prices. Less than a month to the fall in oil price, the self-acclaimed largest economy in Africa is in for it. The economy has gone bad, both federal and state government cannot pay salaries and our currency devalued. The federal government through the Minister of Finance and the Co-ordinating Minister for the Economy, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, http://www.punchng.com/news/oil-slump-fg-unveils-austerity- announced approaches to tackle the economic challenge facing the biggest economy in Africa. Some of the approaches are: Reduction in budget benchmark, Special tax on luxury goods, $2bn withdrawal from ECA, Rejects calls to print more Naira.
Yes we have heard the promise; we will diversify the economy and stabilize the currency. But may I remind Dr. Okonjo Iweala, you can only diversify when you have mechanized agriculture, sophisticated technology and competitive industrialization. Thus the story about diversification is just one of those stories we have heard over the years. Likewise we cannot run solely import dependent economy and expect stable currency rate. Please CBN you cannot do magic, I also share from your frustration.
May I remind the Coordinating Minister of economy that regarding our power generation; we had 4,500 megawatts (MW) daily in 2007 when we had no coordinating Minister. Now we are struggling to have 3000 megawatts (MW) daily. Lest she forgets, in 2007, our foreign reserve was $47 billion. At the moment we have below $45 billion. This is the situation despite the entire crude oil sale under her watch and her coordinating capacity. May I also remind the Coordinating Minister, the Excess Crude Account, in 2007, was $24 billion; today, we are left with at about $2 billion while some Nigerians including the state governors had argued the account is empty. In 2007 without an economic coordinator, we had zero % foreign debts; at present we have over $9 billion debt and we continue to borrow. Thus, what exactly has she coordinated? For the time we had good oil sale, what did the Coordinating Minister do with the proceeds? Did she invest for the future of the country she says is the best in the whole of Africa at least to cover up the hidden lies so it will not come to the public? Frankly no serious minded person is impressed with her performance till date.
Yes the Coordinating Minister is quick to point out, Nigeria economy is growing at 7% rate. It is important she begins to project Nigeria economy by interrogating her actual growth and development rather than being emotional about her rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP). What does it mean to be the largest economy in Africa economy? Will ascribing Africa’s biggest economy to ourselves solve the problems of poverty and inequality in Nigeria? Indeed, the neo-liberal models being advocated by Okonjo Iweala has generated poverty and inequality. She is excited we are having economic growth; however, she is silent on the fact that Nigeria is also witnessing escalating inequality and severe poverty.
I want Okonjo Iweala to answer this, is the growth that comes with gross inequality and exclusion desirable, or sustainable? Are the socioeconomic disparities perpetrated by her neo-liberal model a necessary price we have to pay for her ignorance of measuring how well Nigeria economy is doing?
I forgive Okonjo Iweala, because as an economist she does not know, to be the largest economy in Africa, Nigeria must be a developmental state that acts proactively to transform the economy and the state. Develop her ability to direct her affairs, build strong institutions, create a space for civil society organizations and build the capacity of its citizens to engage governance. We cannot be the Africa largest economy unless huge investments are made in education and health, promote inclusive growth, and create employment. This we will not do by economists rebasing our GDP, but policies and development models being put in place to drive development and turn our 170 million people into assets.
In case she forgets out of convenience, it is time to remind Okonjo Iweala that one way we can begin to redefine our path as the biggest economy in Africa is to have industrialization as an integral part of our development planning process. Without industrialization, we are not going to build an economy that will create opportunities and end poverty. Apparently, all countries that have reduced poverty did so because the economies grew out of practical strategies that created sustainable jobs and provided decent incomes based on industrial growth. Our model which bases on the intensification of our past colonial way of commodity export is not sustainable for our growth and development.
Lest we forget, Okonjo Iweala must know our current realities do not qualify us as the Africa largest economy. On whether we are the largest economy in Africa, paid bureaucrats, academics and government agents promptly make reference to our population, GDP growth and our recent rebased GDP to enlarge their illusion of our greatness which they have propagated and promoted without any result to show. Our lack of firm socio-economic substructure, a functional industrial foundation, and a stable self-regulatory policy further exposes the illusion and lack of understanding of okonjo Iweala from our present reality. It is embarrassing that a world renowned economist still uses the neo-liberal models in analyzing our economic reality even in the obvious economic failure we are into.
I am particularly worried. Judging from Nigeria poverty rate, youth bulge and unemployment, insecurity, mega corruption, import dependent economy, poor education, inadequate housing and leadership failure, Okonjo Iweala still believes Nigeria is the Africa largest economy. No Nigeria might be Africa largest market but not economy. We must knowledge our false generosity abroad and poverty at home does not make us the largest economy in Africa.
Having followed the exhibition of Iweala’s professionalism in handling Nigeria economy in the Jonathan administration and the challenges Nigeria has gone through under her watch, posterity is waiting in judgement for they and the forces that fostered her on us all.
Audu Liberty Oseni, a civil society development worker, can be reached via Libertydgreat@gmail.com. He lives in Abuja
