Waiting for a Third Force (2), By Dele Agekameh

It is rather ironic that it is Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, one of the prosecution witnesses intended to rubbish, incriminate and demonise Saraki and his ambition to run for president in 2019 that is being primed to pull Saraki from his high pedestal. It is also surprising to note that the unusual rapport and camaraderie existing between Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State and current senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and his erstwhile deputy and successor as governor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, has nose-dived into a raging confrontation between the duo.

It is believed that Ganduje, the incumbent governor of Kano, is either intent on running his own show or working assiduously to stifle and minimise Kwankwaso’s threat of running for the 2019 presidency at the behest of either el-Rufai or the president himself. Confrontation between the two sides of the divide recently went physical when policemen, supposedly on the express order of Governor Ganduje, stopped a mass wedding event sponsored by the Kwankwassiya Movement, Kwankwaso’s political and ideological foot-soldiers. A move by this same organisation to hold the event at the residence of Senator Kwankwaso was also put down by the same security agents, an action that is currently under investigation by the police high echelon.

Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, currently the Governor of Sokoto, supposedly as a consolation prize after he recanted his presidential ambition for Buhari’s emergence, is believed by many political pundits to be working subterraneously, to re-energise his ambition in the face of the poor showing in all facets of governance and service delivery by the current the Buhari presidency. As a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tambuwal’s grip on issues and fellow representatives, presented a picture of one with commitment, independence, fairness and religious tolerance, attributes that seem in short supply in Buhari’s rule so far. Tambuwal’s political sense is further attested to by his liberal attitude to those issues that rile other politicians. Recently, he went to Rivers State to commission some projects done by the rival Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), government of Mr. Nyesom Ezenwo Wike.

It is generally believed that the ambition of Atiku Abubakar to be the president of Nigeria, has never dimmed for once considering his huge investment in the long-running project which has seen him make several forays. Rather, he becomes more determined by the day.

To actualise his enduring mindset that his Northern people have not been represented at the presidential stage by the one who is truly national in orientation and profoundly detribalised in practice, Atiku sees himself in that stead and is primed for the position.

With the younger hawks in the All Progressives Congress angling for a piece of the presidential cake, Atiku may be forced by the prevailing circumstances to float a political party of his own as a platform to actualise his ambition. Either way, the prospects of his supplanting a Buhari in the run-up to the 2019 Presidential Election appear brighter and more realisable on that new platform. Sources within the APC and the PDP are also of the view that a presidential field that includes an Atiku running on a new party, with a Buhari on the APC ticket, and a northern PDP candidate will be a beauty to watch. Atiku is also seen by many as a bridge between the old and the young, especially if the robust health he currently enjoys is taken into consideration.

Atiku is generously endowed financially and with decades of personal, business and political networks across the six geo-political zones of the country; he is the man to beat. He, it was, who inherited the political machine of the late master-strategist, General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, which once straddled the Nigerian political space, a factor that will come handy in the coming couple of years. With the current happenings and uncertainly in the PDP, a new party midwifed by Atiku will present a third leg of the political tripod that will determine who takes what in 2019.

With the current power pendulum of the existing two major political parties – the APC and PDP – it is apparent that, barring any unforeseen circumstances, a new political party would soon emerge on the horizon. The new party, which would be a third force, will be made up of aggrieved members of the ruling APC and the remnants of the opposition PDP. The new party would challenge the APC and the PDP.

Many frontline leaders of the two main political parties are involved. Meetings on the new party have been held both in Nigeria and outside the country, particularly in London and Dubai. The emergence of the party probably became imminent because some leaders of the two main political parties believe that Nigerians are neither happy with the current governance style of the APC nor the present deplorable state of the PDP.

As a result of this, some concerned leaders of both parties, who are equally dissatisfied with the goings-on in the polity, are trying to forge a new alliance in order to find a way out of the Buhari presidency. The way things are now, it is not certain that the APC or the PDP will go into the 2019 election as presently constituted. What this implies is that a new political party, chiseled from both parties, is in the offing and could be unveiled in the early part of 2017 to prepare it for the 2019 elections.

Nigerians are particularly irked by the perceived non-inclusive nature of the APC and the protracted crisis in the PDP. They will not be happy to see the PDP return to power so soon under the same name. It is also obvious that though some top politicians in the APC are still on the surface showing solidarity with President Buhari, they are rankled by the strength of what they call the ‘cabal’ around the president’s cabinet. Thus, many top members of the party are dissatisfied with the vice-like grip of the group on the president.

Though some strong political leaders and supporters of the two main political parties might dismiss those looking for a new party as deluding themselves, the Buhari presidency has become too shaky in recent times and so could be vulnerable to manipulations and outright abandonment by those who have been sidelined in the scheme of things.

But the protagonists of the new political party are not unaware that the Buhari presidency is far different from the immediate past Jonathan presidency where all sorts of things happened. They are cautious that if anybody makes a false move now and those in the corridors of power get to know, all they need is to show you some papers and tell you what you did in the past. That is trouble. That is the way it goes in Nigeria. That was the way former President Olusegun Obasanjo kept opposition to his regime at bay.

And right now, the cabal is stronger than that of former President Obasanjo. Don’t be fooled that you can threaten them. The only safe passage for the protagonists of any new party for now, and they are aware of this, is to keep their scheming close to their chests, otherwise, they should be prepared to ruffle feathers with security agents, particularly the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

It is obvious that the PDP may not survive after all. That is why those who can think fast believe there is need for a back up on their side. Many leaders in the APC are also unhappy with Nigeria sliding into recession under their leadership. They attribute the state of the nation’s economy to a lack of capacity by those saddled with the responsibility of governance.
Whether young or old, Nigerians expect those who harbour the intention to preside over the affairs of this great country to set corporate development agenda by enunciating sustainable policies that will benefit all, not just a section.

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