Ẹyẹ ò dédé bà lé òrùlé o, ọ̀rọ̀ lẹyẹ Ńgbọ́ o
With the Presidential Campaign officially over, all is set for the ballot box to speak its mind tomorrow and tell us which way we go. For some of us who believe the street is the most important gauge of the political temperature, the point we have been making for a while, is that the streets have been rather eloquent, in the last few years, that with or without the thermometer, it should be easy to read the body language of the street.
That must be why when we called this race almost 2 years ago, some mistook it for naivety or arrogance. They anchored their hopes around the neck of the gang-up of the elite, the smoke of the 3rd Force and all sorts of ridiculous subterfuge, hoping against hope that something will give. They misread the signs and when there were no signs in sight, they fabricated theirs in desperation to wish into tomorrow what they desire not necessarily what it has on its mind.
Some of the soothsayers of yesterday, who faulted our projections then, have now retired. Perhaps the crystal ball is now saying something different. Some now play in the minor leagues in Afghanistan. Perhaps when the transfer window opens after the election, some might come out of retirement or find their way back to the more prominent leagues. It is the way it is. It is the name of the trade.
Where the elite missed it…
Many of the ‘enlightened’ believers in the Buhari option recognise his weaknesses just as they identify his strengths. They need not be reminded as has become the pastime of some ‘intellectuals’. They are realistic enough to know that for every option, there are strengths to work with and weaknesses to work around. They are pragmatic enough to cast a broad view of the situation at hand, settling for what can work and ensure progress, given what the challenges are.
They are smart enough to recognise that given the ferocity of the forces arrayed against the nation, the quality and strength of the reactionary opposition forces, you must ted with some caution in making the way forward. They can tell that with the options with the more realistic options to win, they are better off with one, in the interest of Nigeria and Nigerians. They do not indulge in fantasy, self-denial or private appropriation of patriotism to themselves, disparaging others.
They do not make the dishonest attempt to dismember the Presidential tag team of Buhari-Osinbajo for the purpose of pretending that one is not working for the other. They realise that it is, indeed, for the purpose of one reinforcing the weaknesses of the other, that they are a team. They have seen the team at work, as one. They can see the body language of the two, the ease and camaraderie between them. They have seen each play the exact role he was expected to play in the team, for the sake of their partnership and the good of their country.
They can see the work that has started. They are not deluded into thinking that it is a work that can be done overnight. They see the vision. They see the tracks, they see the progress. They can see the direction. They have thus chose to embrace hope, rather than chronic cynicism and disillusionment. They do not believe that some magical wave of the hand, solutions will come to the myriad of the problems we are faced with. They are more comfortable going forward than seeking salvation from a discredited past. They can see a tomorrow at work and the path that is being laid out to apprehend it. That is the crime they have committed for which the haughty intellectuals must crucify them, for to see things differently is to have either been bought or be unintelligent.
It is slightly different from the masses, the ones who own the streets. They do not need anyone to remind them of President Buhari’s weak points. They know them, as well. They have only chosen to embrace his heart. They have chosen to embrace his strengths, given the peculiarities of the moment and the demands of the journey. They know the forces on the other side too well. They know those who genuinely are about where the shoe pinches them. They know his faults. They know the spots but they have only chosen not to dwell on them but support him to bring about the change they desire. They are intelligent enough to know it is not an easy task he has taken upon himself to do and that results will not come overnight. They have chosen to invest their hope in him, acting on their own convictions, which the elite, frustrated at such dedicated following the man enjoys, will rather see as ignorance.
But the masses are not like the power elite and the haughty intellectuals with their dictatorial magnifying glasses focused only on weaknesses, ignoring the strengths, determined to see only drawbacks and not progress, optics rather than substance. They know what is at stake. They know that the fight, from the fiery power elite, is not quite about them or their interests. It is about an elite whose primary interest is to regain the lever of power for class aggrandisement. The masses know what is at stake. That is why the street is speaking a different tongue from that of the top. That is the reason why the street will decide on February 16, differently from what the elite prefers.
I see February 16 being a definite statement from the bottom of the pyramid in favour of the Buhari tendency. I see it rewarding and reinforcing a philosophy that will rather build from the bottom than the top. I see February 16 making a statement akin to that made by June 12 – a reminder to the power elite that the goading, demonisation and manipulation can only go so far in pushing the street in a direction different from the one they prefer. February 16 might not have the sharp knife that June 12 had to cut through the ethno-religious sentiment that is rife, but it will cut through in a way. I see February 16 making a statement on where the street desires to go.
Of course, the geo-political sentiments that usually influence political choices here will still influence the direction of the votes tomorrow, even when the contestation over the direction for the future loudly plays on the mind of the street. That is the nature of politics, but the street is smarter than many acknowledge. The street, in most cases, knows how to process all the sentiments together not only for the individuals to attain balance but to the overall interest of the street and the community. The street will be alright. Many who claim to profess from it or for it, only speak for their stomachs.
Ẹyẹ ò dédé bà lé òrùlé o, ọ̀rọ̀ lẹyẹ Ńgbọ́ o
By and large, the results will be as we called it, almost two years ago. President Buhari will win in the North-East, North-West and South-West, just as he did in 2015. He will do better in the South-South and South-East than he did in 2015. It is only in the North-Central that he might not do as well as he did then. I see him clocking 57% (+ or -) of the votes cast. He will achieve a better national spread, gaining 25% of the votes in more states than he did in 2015.
I see the machinations of those whose end-time strategy is to heat the street up, as basis for discrediting the elections, failing. The street is smarter than they think. Unless it is blatantly pushed, once outcome reasonably resonates with expectation, the street will simply smile away the orchestration to use its head to break coconut for the elite. Tomorrow will come and go, the street will smile.
I see consolidation and progress. I see a tomorrow speaking eloquently in the direction of building from the bottom, endorsing the slow but steady march to the tomorrow of our dreams. I see a tomorrow that those who are not consumed by ego and/or pursuit of personal agenda will be happy with.
I also see the gradual return of some of our friends whose permutations missed the target coming back to again mount the high horse of deceit and pretend-patriotism, seeking to discredit and belittle the choice of the majority. I do not see them changing. Soon.
I see peace over our land.
Ẹyẹ ò dédé bà lé òrùlé o, ọ̀rọ̀ lẹyẹ Ńgbọ́ o
Simbo Olorunfemi works for Hoofbeatdotcom, a Nigerian Communications Consultancy and publisher of Africa Enterprise. Twitter: @simboolorunfemi
