The 2020 American election has gotten underway. And this might be the most important American election of recent memory. At this very moment, the nation is in crisis and faces a critical moment in history. A very divided America is making its choice between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden with tense political divisions worsened by the worst public health crisis in over 100 years. The country is also facing an economic collapse that has seen millions of Americans become unemployed, amid unsettled racial tension and police brutality.
Although the polls are looking increasingly close, I just happen to be one of those who strongly believe that Vice President Joe Biden will emerge victorious in this race. Call it wishful thought, in my analysis, Biden will take the day.
In explaining why Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump for the American Presidential seat, one has to venture to the very beginning to really understand how and why Donald Trump was successful to become President in the first place back in 2016.
The main factor for Trump’s success was because of whom he was running against. While Hilary Clinton may have been the most qualified candidate to run for the American presidency, she was not the most endearing of political figures. It has been said that in the history of American politics, Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton were the two most disliked candidates to run for the Presidency. Even beside that, Hilary Clinton came with a lot of baggage, which gave Donald Trump ammunition to use against her during the campaign; she came across as arrogant, corrupt and was attached to a lot of scandal including the Bengazi saga, the podesta situation and the hidden e-mail scandal. Mrs. Clinton thought that she had victory in the bag to such a high extent that, she didn’t even bother going to certain states to campaign. So, even though Hilary Clinton took the popular vote with almost about 3,000,000 votes more than Trump, in America, the use of the Electoral College system means that winning the Presidency is all about winning the States. And because Trump strategised to capture the States with the highest electoral-college votes, he was able to comfortably clinch the Presidency in 2016.
The other main reason that Trump was victorious in the Presidential election in 2016 was the fact that he sold himself as an outsider. He campaigned by telling the American people that he was a businessman with no ties to political or government establishment and a novice when it comes to politics. He articulated his message to the American electorate by talking in simplistic terms and basic grammar. Many Americans understood Trump because he wasn’t using political, fancy vocabulary. He spoke in the way they spoke and many felt that he was talking ‘to them and not down at them.’ The average American saw his rawness as a reflection of them.
Trump urged American to try him because he was radically different. He declared that he would run the country like a business because he comes form a business background. He said that the country had become a laughing stock to the rest of the World and he would not let them become a laughing stock because he would defend the dignity of American ferociously simply because he was fearless. He asked Americans to try something new and they bought into that message. Americans thought they would give ‘the new kid on the block’ a try. Americans rejected Hilary Clinton because she was an establishment candidate who had been in the system for such a long time. Why would they opt for a candidate that was going to do the same as what was there before if they were not happy with and distrusted politicians? Middle America brought into that message and they decided to swing in Trumps direction back in 2016.
Now that President Trump has been in power for the last three and a half years, he cannot distance himself from the establishment. He can’t ask Americans to try something new. In this election, he has a track record and to many Americans, he has been a total disaster. He didn’t do anything different from the other establishment candidates that he tried to distance himself from in the last election. He doesn’t have that tact to trade anymore. This will inevitable be a disadvantage to him as Americans cast their votes.
In this present election, the trajectory of the electoral map of America will be quite different than it was in 2016 should Biden emerge winner. To properly understand where and how the chips fall in the politics of the Presidency of America, one needs to know that the voting trend of the country is divided into three groups; those in the rural areas, the urban dwellers and the Suburbanites.
Usually, the rural areas are made up of mostly Republicans. They are those who veer on the right, they are the farmers, the hillbillies, the red necks, the blue collar workers, the evangelicals, the small town folks and so on. These groups of people always traditionally vote Republican. They are mostly White Caucasian people who have core Christian values. They cherish and value principles that they feel have become under attack recently. The whole LGBTQ movement, gay marriage, the abortion rights stand against their values.
That base in the rural areas have been hurting in recent times because of their view that America was borne on certain principals and they also feel that their country has been infringed upon where immigrants are a threat to their white identity. In a nutshell, this group forms the consistent base for the Republican party and for Trump and will support him without shifting… regardless.
The second group of people is the polar opposites who are the urban dwellers. These are the city folk, the liberals, the leftists, the freedom fighters, the atheists, the minorities and so on. This group of people are made up of mostly the Democrats and will always vote for the Democratic party.
Then there is a third group, which falls in the Middle and consists of the Suburbanites. These are what are considered, to be, Middle America. While those in the Rural areas are deadlocked Republicans and the Urban dwellers are deadlocked Democrats, these surbanites are, more or less, a mixture of both but are for, the most part ‘the Independents.’ This third group of people is those known as the swing voters. They can swing left or right and can go in any direction depending on the issues abound in the year of the election. This third group are essentially the element that decides the American election.
In the rural area, many have never voted for Democrats and in the Urban area, many have never voted for the Republican party. But the Suburbanites in the middle have often gone both ways and they are the key to success in the American presidential election. They are essentially the ones who cast the deciding votes, depending on the candidate, the issues and the messaging. It is this same people who delivered victory for Trump in the 2016 election when they decided to give ‘an outsider’ a chance. It is unlikely that they will do so this time since they now know what his leadership looks like.
Most of the Suburbanites reside in, what is known as ‘the swing states.’ The key with winning the American presidency is in getting the votes in these battleground Swing States as both candidates will look to boost their electoral advantage by targeting the key states that can help them reach the needed 270 votes out of the total 538 up for grabs.
These battleground swing states where the suburbanites reside are, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
In 2016, Trump was lucky that many suburbanites swung in his direction and that is a main factor as to what carried him to victory back then. In the last election, the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania gave Trump his win.
Also, unfortunately for Trump, North Carolina has now become a Swing State, despite the fact that it usually leans Right or Republican. The fact that it has now become a Swing State and Biden is very competitive in that state indicates that the Republicans may have lost the grip on the state. The difference between the two candidates in North Carolina is within the margin of error of 3 or 4 points, which is interpreted as the two candidates being neck and neck. Ordinarily, this shouldn’t be so since North Carolina is usually a Republican State. The fact that the two candidates are within the margin of error indicates that Trump no longer has the kind of support he did in 2016 in North Carolina.
Another indicator that Trump may be in trouble is the fact that Biden has emerged to be quite competitive in Texas. Like in North Carolina, in Texas, normally a Republican State, it should be a given that Trump would clinch the State. The fact that Trump is ferociously campaigning in Texas shows that his campaign may be panicking, hence the reason for the heavy campaign.
But the State to watch in this particular election is Florida. My understanding is that the real key to who will probably win the election lies with Florida. From all indication, this is the number one State in play in this election. Presently, in Florida, Biden is leading Trump by 4 or 5 points and considering that the gap is not too much, it can be considered to be within the margin of error. As it stands, if Trump doesn’t win Florida, he may not have a pathway to success in this election at all.
The battle in Florida has now become even more ferocious with Michael Bloomberg pumping funds into the State for advertisements, campaigners on the ground and other strategies that will ensure that Trump looses Florida. So the race in Florida is one to watch. If Trump doesn’t win Florida, it may be ‘curtains’ for him. While he may be able to afford to loose some other swing states, but he cannot afford to loose Florida in the least bit.
There are so many reasons that will contribute to the defeat of Trump in this election that one wouldn’t even know where to start from. Apart from the fact that his ‘Twitter fingers’ are so offensive, there are many other reasons such as his goal in quashing the Obamacare affordable health system, which benefits many Americans. In this instance, to Trump’s disadvantage, he embarked on an impossible trade war with China. In this trade war, he imposed tariffs on China and China decided to retaliate. The result was that rural farmers have been affected negatively.
Then there is the wall, the ridiculous wall that Trump promised to build separating America and Mexico. Now it is looking like he lied about building the Wall because, during the midterm elections when he was asked about the wall and he claimed that he has started building the wall, it was reported that the structure being erected is actually a replacement wall.
Also the manner in which he handled the coronavirus is a huge factor as to why he may loose. When the Coronavirus spread to America, Trump panicked and miscalculated the proper reaction. Considering that the economy was going well, Trump was reluctant to shut it down completely in the fear that all the economic gains that he had made would be lost. He made a wrong political calculation as far as Covid-19 is concerned. He downplayed the virus to the American people because it was so close to an election and it was politically expedient for him to do so. But downplaying it made the situation worse.
The record number of voting in this election may indicate a Trump loss. In the history of America, there has never been a time that saw such a high record of voting. In the election of 2016, many Americans refrained from voting but this time, there just seems to be too much to loose in an American election that is shaping up to be one of the most important in living memory.
If I were a betting person, I’d put my money on Joe Bidden. But who truly wins the 2020 U.S. presidential election? It will be determined by voters in the battleground swing states!
But the world doesn’t have long to go before hearing the sacred words, “WE CAN NOW PROJECT THAT THE DULY ELECTED 45THPRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IS ……..!”
Hannatu Musawa; @hanneymusawa; www.hanneymusawa.com; www.facebook.com/hannatu.musawa; www.youtube.com/HannatuMusawa