The fact is that Nigeria’s current reality was not inevitable. There were warnings by scientists that without urgent action, shortly after Nigeria relaxed most of its restrictions to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 infections, this sort of current situation would likely happen. But the exigencies of governance and the contextual realities of Nigeria’s socio-economic situation made the government either play the ostrich or downplay the imminent risk.
That Nigeria currently battles a more deadly second wave of COVID-19 is no longer in doubt. The numbers are dire. In the first week of January, the country had about 10,000 positive tests reported in just seven days, obviously linked to the festivities. One in every six persons (16 per cent) tested positive for COVID-19 during that period. As cases rise, so are the fatalities. In just over three weeks, Nigeria had 146 deaths from COVID-19 complications.
These numbers are alarming because the country’s capacity for testing is still poor. This is despite the fact that, according to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), 120 new laboratories have been activated since last year and a new private sector-led four star laboratory, Analytics Diagnostics, will soon open its doors in Port Harcourt. It is believed that most fatalities resulting from COVID-19 are going unreported. Clear evidence of the severity of the second wave of the pandemic in Nigeria is how our healthcare facilities are being overwhelmed. Bed spaces for those sick from the viral disease are scarce, and government hospitals now admit only those with severe symptoms. Scientific knowledge available says the novel coronavirus is a respiratory disease, and the most affected patients are usually short of oxygen. The booming black market business in oxygen in Nigeria tells one much about the severity of the second wave of the virus.
There are reports about some hospitals charging as much as N5 million as deposit for COVID-19 patients. Some sick people are spending as much as N500,000 per day on treatment, especially those in need of oxygen. No hospital seems to bother about those who test positive to COVID-19 but are asymptomatic, as they are advised to go home and self-isolate.
Gone are the days of contact tracing, when the government will trace everyone with whom a person who has tested positive for the novel coronavirus had come in contact with, to ensure that they all self-isolate to curb the spread of the virus. These days, there is the recognition that community transmission drives this second wave of infections and efforts to curtail the spread seem rooted more in faith than in strategy.
Despite the deadly new wave of COVID-19 that has come upon us, most Nigerians are carrying on as if nothing is amiss. There seems to be total abdication of individual responsibility in containing this virus. In the ever-busy streets of Lagos and other major cities across the country, people move around without face masks and do not adhere to social distancing guidelines. Our markets operate with little or no compliance to the COVID-19 protocols. Weddings, burials, birthdays, and other events are occurring regularly, as if there is no pestilence in our midst. Our public transportation systems are as they have always been – cramped with people, whether it is the buses or taxis, and there is no adherence to the recommended safety measures against COVID-19.
Our churches and other worship centres are not left out. Religious services hold as they did pre-2020, with pastors and other ‘men of God’ presiding over potential COVID-19 super spreader events in the name of church services. Many countries have shut down worship places for good reasons, based on pattern recognition in the spread of the virus. God will understand if we must worship him from home when necessary.
The government and NCDC are doing their best to curb the spread, but the situation still seems helpless and hapless. The leadership of the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 and NCDC have so far demonstrated that Nigerians can get things done, if tasks are handed over to committed and competent persons. We are now faced with the threats of another lockdown, but the attendant economic impact would likely be very devastating. The recent prevarication of the Federal Ministry of Education over whether to reopen schools across the country or not is a sign of government’s predicament. University lecturers were pushing against the resumption of academic activities, but the Federal Government and most state governments have authorised the reopening of primary, secondary, and tertiary places of learning.
The most viable means of bringing the COVID-19 pandemic to an end is through herd immunity brought about by effective vaccination… Effective vaccines have been developed, but it would still take months to have them available in Nigeria and years to have them administered to a substantial portion of the population, to ensure herd immunity and decapitate this deadly virus.
The fact is that Nigeria’s current reality was not inevitable. There were warnings by scientists that without urgent action, shortly after Nigeria relaxed most of its restrictions to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 infections, this sort of current situation would likely happen. But the exigencies of governance and the contextual realities of Nigeria’s socio-economic situation made the government either play the ostrich or downplay the imminent risk.
There are no easy solutions to the second surge of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Much has been said about a second lockdown. However, the coronavirus pandemic has been a devastating blow to the world economy, and Nigeria is without exemption. It is on record that Nigeria’s economy contracted by 6.1 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020. The dip follows thirteen quarters of favourable but low growth rates. The 6.1 per cent decline is also Nigeria’s steepest in the last ten years. In November 2020, the Nigerian government announced that the country had slipped into a recession, the second since 2015, after its gross domestic product contracted for the second consecutive quarter.
Economists believe that even though Nigeria’s long tottering economy risked slipping into recession, even without the COVID-19 pandemic, the recession was exacerbated by the lockdown occasioned by the prevalence of the disease.
The fact is that while the initial lockdown across the globe last year was needed as an emergency solution to contain the spread of COVID-19, a second lockdown, by all intents and justifications, is not necessary for now, especially in the face of sustained recession, which most world economies now face due to COVID-19.
It has also been proven that there may be no strong correlation between the spread of COVID-19 and lockdowns as a complete solution. Instead, the lockdown seems to have immense adverse effects on the global economy, affecting government revenue and consequently expenditures, and impacting adversely on household incomes.
The summary is that the economic wreckage wrought by lockdown restrictions is usually devastating. However, the situation is worsened by mismanagement of the lockdown, as economics and human health hardly operate in isolation. When people die from the pandemic, they are no longer economically productive, and thousands of sick people in hospitals, quarantine and isolation centres consume resources without participating in economic activities. Added to these, a substantial spike in the number of COVID-19 cases also puts people with other health issues at increased risk.
The most viable means of bringing the COVID-19 pandemic to an end is through herd immunity brought about by effective vaccination. Reports have it that Britain has vaccinated 4.6 million people with two doses of the vaccine under three months and Israel, as at January 19, has vaccinated 25.6 per cent of its population. These two countries have been successful due to their vast and advanced healthcare infrastructure. Effective vaccines have been developed, but it would still take months to have them available in Nigeria and years to have them administered to a substantial portion of the population, to ensure herd immunity and decapitate this deadly virus. Our vaccination situation will not be helped by our non-existent or decrepit healthcare infrastructure.
The solution to the pandemic requires governmental and individual responsibility. The government should proactively and intentionally embark on information campaigns, and health interventions, whilst individuals must adhere to all COVID-19 protocols. If the government and the people do not take adequate measures to curtail this more deadly second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, we may find ourselves trapped in a big mire…
The second wave of COVID-19 can only be checked by a determined and purposeful government and a responsible citizenry. It is a shared responsibility and we all have to be responsible. The government should re-instate bans on large gatherings, like burials, weddings, birthdays, parties, and other social events. Our markets should only operate within COVID-19 safety guidelines; our public transportation should be COVID-19 compliant, and our worship centres should only be allowed to open if they observe adequate safety protocols.
Schools are potential places for super spreader situations. As governments have allowed schools to reopen, they must ensure that school administrators comply with their directives on ensuring students’ safety. The regular inspection of educational institutions by NCDC officials is crucial, and they should sanction those who do not comply to the saftey protocols.
The government should equally step-up efforts on public enlightenment around safety measures to protect against the virus and the appropriateness and efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine which, in the current milieu, will face serious challenges when it eventually becomes available in the country. Virulent superstitions and unfounded speculations about the virus amongst the citizenry are so high that most Nigerians will not take the vaccine whenever it is available, if there is no social re-orientation.
On the part of citizens, the solutions are simple and straightforward. We should continue washing our hands, wearing our face masks and maintaining physical and social distancing. People should get tested when they get sick or when they come in close contact with infected persons, while making sure that they self-isolate if they test positive, whether they have the symptoms or not.
Nigerians did away with large gatherings – burials, weddings, birthdays, etc., for an extended period in 2020, with minimal impact on relationships. Why can’t we do the same in 2021 until the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is over? One of the positives of the pandemic is that people have begun to appreciate the essence of virtual meetings, conferences, and other events. The overall effect of the lack of physical interactions on productivity was not much.
There is an enlightened hypothesis that the spike in cases and deaths from COVID-19 in the Western world has been mostly due to their seasonal cold weather. Therefore, we expect that as the weather gets warmer and with increased vaccination, the situation in these places will also get better. However, this is not the same case with Nigeria. The second wave of the COVID-19 spread may be due to extensive negligence from the gains made during the first wave and a citizenry that prematurely threw caution to the winds.
The solution to the pandemic requires governmental and individual responsibility. The government should proactively and intentionally embark on information campaigns, and health interventions, whilst individuals must adhere to all COVID-19 protocols. If the government and the people do not take adequate measures to curtail this more deadly second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, we may find ourselves trapped in a big mire when the rest of the world is already out of the woods. We must not let this happen.
Dakuku Peterside is a policy and leadership expert.
